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The English side's opening match in Australia starts on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the apparent challenge of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|